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What we can and cannot learn from SARS-CoV-2 and animals in metagenomic samples from the Huanan market

机译:我们可以从华南市场的 SARS-CoV-2 和宏基因组样本中的动物身上学到什么不能从中学到什么

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摘要

While the exact context of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 remains uncertain, data accumulated since 2020 have provided an increasingly more precise picture of Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, to which the earliest clusters of human cases of Covid-19 were linked. After the market closed on January 1st 2020, teams from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention collected environmental samples, and sequenced them. Metagenomic sequencing data from these samples were shared in early 2023. These data confirmed that non-human animals susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 were present in the market before it closed, but also that these animals were located in the side of the market with most human cases, and in a corner with comparatively more SARS-CoV-2-positive environmental samples. The environmental samples were however collected after abundant human-to-human transmission had taken place in the market, precluding any identification of a non-human animal host. Jesse Bloom recently investigated associations between SARS-CoV-2 and non-human animals, concluding that the data failed to indicate whether non-human animals were infected by SARS-CoV-2, despite this being an already acknowledged limitation of the data. Here I explain why a correlation analysis could not confidently conclude which hosts(s) may have shed SARS-CoV-2 in the market, and I rebut the suggestion that such analyses had been encouraged. I show that Bloom’s investigation ignores the temporal and spatial structure of the data, which led to incorrect interpretations. Finally, I show that criteria put forward by Bloom to identify the host(s) that shed environmental SARS-CoV-2 would also exclude humans. Progress on the topic of SARS-CoV-2’s origin requires a clear distinction between scientific studies and news articles (mis)interpreting them.
机译:虽然 SARS-CoV-2 出现的确切背景仍不确定,但自 2020 年以来积累的数据越来越准确地描述了武汉华南海鲜批发市场,最早的 Covid-19 人类病例集群与该市场有关。2020 年 1 月 1 日市场收市后,中国疾病预防控制中心的团队收集了环境样本并对其进行了测序。来自这些样本的宏基因组测序数据于 2023 年初共享。这些数据证实,易感染 SARS-CoV-2 的非人类动物在市场关闭前就存在于市场中,而且这些动物位于人类病例最多的市场一侧,并且位于 SARS-CoV-2 阳性环境样本相对更多的角落。然而,这些环境样本是在市面上发生大量人际传播后收集的,因此无法识别出非人类动物宿主。Jesse Bloom 最近调查了 SARS-CoV-2 与非人类动物之间的关联,得出的结论是,这些数据未能表明非人类动物是否感染了 SARS-CoV-2,尽管这已经是公认的数据局限性。在这里,我解释了为什么相关性分析无法自信地得出哪些宿主可能已经在市场上传播了 SARS-CoV-2,并且我反驳了鼓励此类分析的说法。我表明布鲁姆的调查忽略了数据的时间和空间结构,这导致了错误的解释。最后,我表明 Bloom 提出的用于识别排出环境 SARS-CoV-2 的宿主的标准也将排除人类。SARS-CoV-2 起源主题的进展需要明确区分科学研究和新闻文章(错误)解读它们。

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