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Estimating Simultaneous Equation Models through an Entropy-Based Incremental Variational Bayes Learning Algorithm

机译:通过基于熵的增量变分贝叶斯学习算法估算同声等式模型

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摘要

The presence of unaccounted heterogeneity in simultaneous equation models (SEMs) is frequently problematic in many real-life applications. Under the usual assumption of homogeneity, the model can be seriously misspecified, and it can potentially induce an important bias in the parameter estimates. This paper focuses on SEMs in which data are heterogeneous and tend to form clustering structures in the endogenous-variable dataset. Because the identification of different clusters is not straightforward, a two-step strategy that first forms groups among the endogenous observations and then uses the standard simultaneous equation scheme is provided. Methodologically, the proposed approach is based on a variational Bayes learning algorithm and does not need to be executed for varying numbers of groups in order to identify the one that adequately fits the data. We describe the statistical theory, evaluate the performance of the suggested algorithm by using simulated data, and apply the two-step method to a macroeconomic problem.
机译:在许多现实生活中,在同时等式模型(SEM)中,在同时等式模型(SEM)中的存在在许多现实生活中的存在是错误的。在通常的同质性假设下,该模型可以严重遗漏,并且可能潜在地诱导参数估计中的重要偏差。本文重点介绍了数据的SEM,其中数据是异构的,并且倾向于在内源性变量数据集中形成聚类结构。因为不同簇的识别并不简单,所以提供了一种在内源观察中首先形成基团的两步策略,然后使用标准的同时等式方案。方法上,所提出的方法基于变分贝叶斯学习算法,不需要执行用于改变数量的组,以便识别充分适合数据的组。我们描述了统计理论,通过使用模拟数据来评估建议算法的性能,并将两步法应用于宏观经济问题。

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