Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

摘要

The Delphi technique is a suitable methodology for structuring group communication to answer current and prospective research questions within several rounds. The method is used in many disciplines and characterized by anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical “group response” (Rowe & Wright, 2001). This technical paper presents practical details and lessons learned from a two-round Delphi-based scenario study in which projections (Delphi statements, questions or hypotheses) were developed with findings from expert interviews and an expert workshop. This Delphi study provides answers to future-related questions for which other research methods are inappropriate. This is depicted as a five-step process, making it easy to follow and replicable, for example to help first-time Delphi-method researchers. In doing so, the authors aim to provide the community with valuable technical insights and guidance for studies applying the Delphi technique both to prospective questions and in other research settings.