Comparison of the Framingham Heart Study Hypertension Model with Blood Pressure Alone in the Prediction of Risk of Hypertension: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

摘要

A prediction model, developed in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), has been proposed for use in estimating a given individual’s risk of hypertension. We compared this model with systolic blood pressure (SBP) alone and age-specific diastolic blood pressure (DBP) categories for the prediction of hypertension. Participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, without hypertension or diabetes (n=3013), were followed for the incidence of hypertension (SBP ≥ 140 mmHg and/or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg and/or the initiation of antihypertensive medication). The predicted probability of developing hypertension between four adjacent study examinations, with a median of 1.6 years between examinations, was determined. The mean (standard deviation) age of participants was 58.5 (9.7) years and 53% were women. During follow-up, 849 incident cases of hypertension occurred. The c-statistic for the FHS model was 0.788 (95% CI: 0.773, 0.804) compared with 0.768 (95% CI: 0.751, 0.785; p=0.096 compared to the FHS model) for SBP alone and 0.699 (95% CI: 0.681, 0.717; p<0.001 compared to the FHS model) for age-specific DBP categories. The relative integrated discrimination improvement index for the FHS model versus SBP alone was 10.0% (95% CI: −1.7%, 22.7%) and versus age-specific DBP categories was 146% (95% CI: 116%, 181%). Using the FHS model, there were significant differences between observed and predicted hypertension risk (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p<0.001); re-calibrated and best-fit models produced a better model fit (p=0.064 and 0.245, respectively). In this multi-ethnic cohort of U.S. adults, the FHS model was not substantially better than SBP alone for predicting hypertension.