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The effect on turnout of campaign mobilization messages addressing ballot secrecy concerns: A replication experiment

机译:解决投票机密性问题的竞选动员消息的影响:复制实验

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摘要

Given the persistence of public doubts about the integrity of ballot secrecy, which depress turnout, two prior experiments have shown precise evidence that both official governmental and unofficial mobilization campaigns providing assurances about ballot secrecy increase turnout among recently registered nonvoters. To assess whether these findings replicate in other political settings, we describe a replication experiment where a non-governmental, non-partisan mobilization campaign sent similar treatment mailings containing assurances about ballot secrecy protections to recently registered nonvoters during the 2014 general election in Mississippi. We find that sending this mailer has no effect on turnout rates in this setting, which is characterized by an unusually low baseline turnout rate. These results are consistent with past research concluding that nonpartisan Get Out The Vote (GOTV) mail has very weak effects among very low turnout propensity registrants, and suggest that there are heterogeneous effects of ballot secrecy treatments associated with subjects’ characteristics and the electoral context.
机译:鉴于公众一直对投票保密的完整性持怀疑态度,这压低了投票率,因此两项先前的实验已经显示出确切的证据,官方和非官方动员运动都为最近登记的非投票者提供了投票保密的保证。为了评估这些发现是否能在其他政治环境中复制,我们描述了一个复制实验,在该实验中,一个非政府,无党派动员运动在2014年密西西比大选期间向最近登记的非投票人发送了类似的邮件,其中包含有关投票保密保护的保证。我们发现,在此设置中发送此邮件对投票率没有影响,其特点是基线投票率异常低。这些结果与以往的研究结论一致,即无党派的“出去投票”邮件在投票率偏低的注册人中的作用很弱,并表明与主题特征和选举背景相关的投票保密处理存在异类效果。

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