Contest and Scramble Competition and the Carry-Over Effect in Globodera spp. in Potato-Based Crop Rotations Using an Extended Ricker Model

摘要

The Ricker model extended with a linear term was used to model the dynamics of a potato cyst nematode population on different potato cultivars over a wide range of population densities. The model accounts for contest and scramble competition and between-year carryover of unhatched eggs. Contest competition occurs due to the restricted amount of available root sites that are the feeding source of the female nematode. Nematodes not reaching such a feeding site turn into males and do not contribute to a new generation. Scramble competition results in a decrease of the number of eggs per cyst at high densities due to the decrease in the food supply per feeding site. At still higher densities, the size of the root system declines; then dynamics are mostly governed by carryover of cysts between subsequent years. The restricted number of three parameters in the proposed model made it possible to calculate the equilibrium densities and to obtain analytical expressions of the model's sensitivity to parameter change. The population dynamics model was combined with a yield-loss assessment model and, using empirical Bayesian methods, was fitted to data from a 3-year experiment carried out in the Netherlands. The experiment was set up around the location of a primary infestation of Globodera pallida in reclaimed polder soil. Due to a wide range of population densities at short distances from the center of the infestation, optimal conditions existed for studying population response and damage in different cultivars. By using the empirical Bayesian methods it is possible to estimate all parameters of the dynamic system, in contrast to earlier studies with realistic biological models where convergence of parameter estimation algorithms was a problem. Applying the model to the outcome of the experiment, we calculated the minimum gross margin that a fourth crop needs to reach in order to be taken up in a 3-year rotation with potato. An equation was derived that accounted for both gross margin changes and nematode-related yield loss. The new model with its three parameters has the right level of complexity for the amount and type of collected data. Two other important models from the literature, containing five and 10 parameters respectively, may at this point turn out to be less appropriate. Consequences for research priorities are discussed and prediction schemes are taken in consideration.