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Double trouble: modelling the impact of low risk perception and high-risk sexual behaviour on chlamydia transmission

机译:双重麻烦:模拟低风险感知和高风险性行为对衣原体传播的影响

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摘要

Risk perception plays an important role in testing behaviour for sexually transmitted infections, but is rarely included in mathematical models exploring the impact of testing. We explored the impact of incorporating sexual behaviour (SB), risk perception (RP) and differential testing uptake in SB–RP groups on prevalence, using chlamydia as an example. We developed a pair model with a susceptible–infected–susceptible structure representing heterosexuals aged 16–26 years. The effect of testing on chlamydia prevalence was compared between a model with only SB (SB model) and a model with SB and RP (SB–RP model). In the SB–RP model, a scenario without differential testing uptake in SB–RP groups was compared to scenarios with differential testing uptake in SB–RP groups. Introducing testing into the SB–RP model resulted in a slightly smaller reduction in chlamydia prevalence (−38.0%) as compared to the SB model (−40.4%). In the SB–RP model, the scenario without differential testing uptake in SB–RP groups overestimated the reduction in chlamydia prevalence (with 4.8%), especially in the group with high SB and low RP (19.8%). We conclude that mathematical models incorporating RP and differential testing uptake in SB–RP groups improve the impact assessment of testing and treatment on chlamydia prevalence.
机译:风险知觉在测试性传播感染的行为中起着重要作用,但在探索测试影响的数学模型中却很少包含。我们以衣原体为例,探讨了性行为(SB),风险感知(RP)和SB-RP组差异测试摄入量对患病率的影响。我们开发了一个具有易感性-易感性结构的配对模型,代表了16-26岁的异性恋者。在只有SB的模型(SB模型)与有SB和RP的模型(SB–RP模型)之间比较了测试对衣原体患病率的影响。在SB-RP模型中,将SB-RP组中没有差异测试摄取的情景与SB-RP组中具有差异测试摄取的情景进行了比较。与SB模型(-40.4%)相比,将测试引入SB-RP模型可使衣原体患病率降低幅度较小(-38.0%)。在SB-RP模型中,SB-RP组没有差异测试摄取的情况高估了衣原体患病率的下降(4.8%),特别是在SB高而RP低的组(19.8%)。我们得出的结论是,将RP和SB–RP组的差异测试吸收结合起来的数学模型可改善测试和治疗对衣原体患病率的影响评估。

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