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How the Dynamics and Structure of Sexual Contact Networks Shape Pathogen Phylogenies

机译:性接触网络的动力学和结构如何塑造病原体系统发育

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摘要

The characteristics of the host contact network over which a pathogen is transmitted affect both epidemic spread and the projected effectiveness of control strategies. Given the importance of understanding these contact networks, it is unfortunate that they are very difficult to measure directly. This challenge has led to an interest in methods to infer information about host contact networks from pathogen phylogenies, because in shaping a pathogen's opportunities for reproduction, contact networks also shape pathogen evolution. Host networks influence pathogen phylogenies both directly, through governing opportunities for evolution, and indirectly by changing the prevalence and incidence. Here, we aim to separate these two effects by comparing pathogen evolution on different host networks that share similar epidemic trajectories. This approach allows use to examine the direct effects of network structure on pathogen phylogenies, largely controlling for confounding differences arising from population dynamics. We find that networks with more heterogeneous degree distributions yield pathogen phylogenies with more variable cluster numbers, smaller mean cluster sizes, shorter mean branch lengths, and somewhat higher tree imbalance than networks with relatively homogeneous degree distributions. However, in particular for dynamic networks, we find that these direct effects are relatively modest. These findings suggest that the role of the epidemic trajectory, the dynamics of the network and the inherent variability of metrics such as cluster size must each be taken into account when trying to use pathogen phylogenies to understand characteristics about the underlying host contact network.
机译:病原体在其上传播的宿主接触网络的特征既影响流行病的传播,又影响控制策略的预期效果。鉴于了解这些联系网络的重要性,不幸的是,它们很难直接测量。这一挑战引起了人们对从病原体系统发育中推断宿主接触网信息的方法的兴趣,因为在塑造病原体繁殖的机会时,接触网也会影响病原体的进化。宿主网络既可以通过控制进化机会来直接影响病原体系统发育,也可以通过改变患病率和发病率来间接影响病原体系统发育。在这里,我们旨在通过比较在具有相似流行轨迹的不同宿主网络上的病原体进化来分离这两种影响。这种方法可以用来检查网络结构对病原体系统发育的直接影响,主要是控制由种群动态引起的混淆性差异。我们发现,与具有相对均一度分布的网络相比,具有更不均匀度分布的网络所产生的病原体系统发育具有更大的簇数,更小的平均簇大小,更短的平均分支长度以及更高的树木失衡性。但是,特别是对于动态网络,我们发现这些直接影响相对较小。这些发现表明,在尝试使用病原体系统发育来了解有关潜在宿主接触网络的特征时,必须分别考虑流行轨迹的作用,网络的动力学以及度量标准的固有变异性(例如簇大小)。

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