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Modelling Optimal Control of Cholera in Communities Linked by Migration

机译:通过迁移关联的社区中霍乱的最佳控制建模

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摘要

A mathematical model for the dynamics of cholera transmission with permissible controls between two connected communities is developed and analysed. The dynamics of the disease in the adjacent communities are assumed to be similar, with the main differences only reflected in the transmission and disease related parameters. This assumption is based on the fact that adjacent communities often have different living conditions and movement is inclined toward the community with better living conditions. Community specific reproduction numbers are given assuming movement of those susceptible, infected, and recovered, between communities. We carry out sensitivity analysis of the model parameters using the Latin Hypercube Sampling scheme to ascertain the degree of effect the parameters and controls have on progression of the infection. Using principles from optimal control theory, a temporal relationship between the distribution of controls and severity of the infection is ascertained. Our results indicate that implementation of controls such as proper hygiene, sanitation, and vaccination across both affected communities is likely to annihilate the infection within half the time it would take through self-limitation. In addition, although an infection may still break out in the presence of controls, it may be up to 8 times less devastating when compared with the case when no controls are in place.
机译:建立和分析了霍乱传播动力学的数学模型,并在两个相连的社区之间进行了控制。假定邻近社区的疾病动态相似,主要区别仅体现在传播和疾病相关参数上。该假设基于以下事实:邻近社区通常具有不同的生活条件,并且运动倾向于生活条件更好的社区。假定社区中易感,感染和康复者的活动,给出社区特定的繁殖数量。我们使用Latin Hypercube Sampling方案对模型参数进行敏感性分析,以确定参数和对照对感染进展的影响程度。使用最佳控制理论的原理,可以确定控制分布与感染严重程度之间的时间关系。我们的结果表明,在两个受影响社区中实施适当的卫生,卫生和疫苗接种等控制措施,很可能会在通过自我限制的一半时间内消除感染。此外,尽管在没有对照的情况下仍可能会爆发感染,但与没有对照的情况相比,它的破坏力最多可降低8倍。

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