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The role of simple mathematical models in malaria elimination strategy design

机译:简单数学模型在消除疟疾策略设计中的作用

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摘要

BackgroundMalaria has recently been identified as a candidate for global eradication. This process will take the form of a series of national eliminations. Key issues must be considered specifically for elimination strategy when compared to the control of disease. Namely the spread of drug resistance, data scarcity and the adverse effects of failed elimination attempts. Mathematical models of various levels of complexity have been produced to consider the control and elimination of malaria infection. If available, detailed data on malaria transmission (such as the vector life cycle and behaviour, human population behaviour, the acquisition and decay of immunity, heterogeneities in transmission intensity, age profiles of clinical and subclinical infection) can be used to populate complex transmission models that can then be used to design control strategy. However, in many malaria countries reliable data are not available and policy must be formed based on information like an estimate of the average parasite prevalence.
机译:背景疟疾最近被确定为全球根除疟疾的候选人。此过程将采取一系列国家淘汰的形式。与疾病控制相比,必须特别考虑消除策略的关键问题。即耐药性的蔓延,数据缺乏和消除尝试失败的不利影响。已经产生了各种复杂程度的数学模型,以考虑控制和消除疟疾感染。如果有的话,可以使用有关疟疾传播的详细数据(例如媒介生命周期和行为,人口行为,免疫力的获取和衰减,传播强度的异质性,临床和亚临床感染的年龄分布)来填充复杂的传播模型然后可以用来设计控制策略。但是,在许多疟疾国家,没有可靠的数据,必须根据诸如平均寄生虫流行率的估计值之类的信息来制定政策。

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