ESTIMATES OF EX-SERVICEMEN POPULATION FOR NEXT 30 YEARS: A NEED TO REORIENT OUR HEALTH PLANNING

摘要

A mathematical model, using survival analysis methods has been developed to estimate the total population as well as the populations as per specific age groups of ex-servicemen for the next 30 years. The results indicate that from the present population of 13.75 lakhs., the total population of ex-servicemen would be 15.62 lakhs by 2027 A.D. In addition, there are likely to be noteworthy changes in the population structure. While the population of geriatric age group (65 years and above) is only 21% at present compared to 49% from age group 45-54 years, by 2027 A.D. the geriatric age group would contribute to 34% of the ex-servicemen population while 45-54 years age group would constitute only 36%. There is a need, therefore, to start rethinking on our future plans as regards health services since geriatric health problems are likely to become a leading health issue after the next ten years.