基于多信息融合的电动汽车保有量预测模型分析

摘要

电动汽车保有量发展趋势预测是电动汽车充/换电服务网络规划建设的重要参考依据，在分析汽车市场发展规律的基础上，选取其主要影响因子，通过多元线性回归法预测汽车市场的发展规模；采用Box-Cox Dogit模型分析电动汽车市场的分担规模，预测电动汽车市场规模的理论最大值；最后通过改进的Bass模型，确定电动汽车市场的内、外部影响系数，并预测其发展趋势，可为电动汽车相关规划提供参考依据。%Development trend of electric vehicle amount is an important reference to the planning and con-struction of charging and battery swap service network for electric vehicles. By analyzing the law of electric vehicle development, the paper selects the main influencing factors to forecast development scale of electric vehicle market by multiple linear regression method. Box-Cox Dogit model is adopted to analyze sharing scale of EV market and forecast the theoretical maximum. Finally, influence coefficients in and out of electric ve-hicle market is concluded and the development trend is forecasted by the improved Bass model, which can be a reference for planning of electric vehicle.