黄河甘宁蒙段沿岸化工企业众多，已成为突发水污染事故高风险区域，针对可能的突发污染事故进行应急预警具有重要的现实意义。基于 EFDC 模型建立了自甘肃兰州至内蒙古头道拐河段水污染突发事故一维预警模型，考虑不同河段纵向离散系数和多沙河流污染物衰减系数变化，模拟预测了污染物迁移过程。结果表明：所建预警模型能够模拟和预测突发污染物泄露事故条件下污染带迁移的过程。以兰州泄露 COD（污染物浓度3 g/ L、流量50 m3/ s、持续时间72 h）为例，甘肃及宁夏河段代表断面不可取水时长分别为63、53、41、25 h；由于 COD 在多沙环境下衰减效率高，因此内蒙古河段的水质基本不受事故影响。%A large number of chemical enterprises along the Yellow River of Gansu-Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches have become a high risk area of sudden water pollution accident. Hence,the possible emergency pollution accident emergency warning of possible has important realistic signifi-cance. Based on the EFDC model,this paper established one-dimensional warning model of water pollution accident from Lanzhou of Gansu to Toudaoguai reach of Inner Mongolia. Considering the different sections of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient and sediment laden river pollutants attenuation coefficient,the pollutant migration process was predicted. The results show that the warning model can simulate and forecast the process of pollutants migration under the conditions of sudden leakage of pollution accident. Taking Lanzhou leaked COD(with pollutant concentration of 3 g/ L,discharge of 50 m3 / s and duration of 72 h)as an example,the time of unsuited water intaking of typical representative sections in Gansu and Ningxia reaches is 63 h,53 h,41 h and 25 h respectively;because of the high efficiency of COD attenuation in sandy environments,the water quality of Inner Mongolia river reach is basically not affected by the accident.
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