基于前景理论的流域生态补偿政策研究

摘要

Interests of the game between the upstream and downstream is one of the key issues of river basin ecological compensation. The stakehold-ers in river basin take part in the game of protection from their interest leading to contradiction of collective rationality in river basin ecoogical com-pensation. The article analyzed the income and expenditure of the upstream and downstream through the prospect theory. It gave some advices to the establishment of the compensation opportunity and compensation method in order to promote the development of the river basin between upstream and downstream. Down-stream stakeholders in the river basin are limited rational individuals. In addition to the traditional economic compensation, the time for compensation and the choice of the method in different stages should be considered.%流域上下游之间利益博弈是流域生态补偿的关键问题之一。流域上下游利益主体从自身利益出发进行保护博弈，从而使流域生态补偿陷入集体理性的矛盾。利用前景理论对上下游的收益和支出进行分析，考虑到上下游保护和补偿时的心理状态，从补偿时机、补偿方式等方面对补偿机制的构建提出建议，以促进流域上下游的共同发展。流域上下游的利益主体是有限理性个体，除了采用传统的经济补偿外，还应当注意补偿时机的选择、不同阶段补偿方法的选择。