中原城市群水资源承载力调控措施及效果分析

摘要

The shortage of water resources has become one of the key constraints of coordination progress and the overall function development of the central Henan urban agglomeration. In order to develop the water resources carrying capacity,water resources carrying amount of GDP and GDP per capita were used to character the water resources carrying capacity of urban agglomeration. According to the system thought,the central Henan urban agglomeration was regarded as a whole system. Based on the rule of water resources shared within the system,the regu-lation schemes were established from four aspects:water structure adjustment,efficient utilization of water resources,economic structure ad-justment and population distribution adjustment. In view of the water resources optimal allocation model,it analyzed the improvement effect of regulation measures on central Henan urban agglomeration water resources carrying capacity. The result shows that adjusting the allocation indexes of the Yellow River diversion and the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project of each city,improving water use efficiency,increasing the proportion of the second and the tertiary industry and changing the population distribution of each city can improve the urban agglomeration water resources carrying capacity in different degrees. When using different control measures at the same time,the total economic scale of water resources carrying is 3 521. 61 billion Yuan and GDP per capita can reach 77,356 Yuan,which is beyond the planning economic scale in 2020.%水资源短缺制约着中原城市群的协调发展和城市群总体功能的发挥。为提高水资源承载能力，采用水资源承载GDP总量和人均GDP表征城市群的水资源承载能力，采用系统的思想，把中原城市群作为一个完整系统，遵循系统内水资源共享的原则，从供水结构调整、水资源高效利用、经济结构调整和人口分布调整四个方面构建调控方案。基于水资源优化配置模型，分析各调控措施对提高中原城市群水资源承载能力的效果。结果表明：调整各城市黄河引水指标及南水北调中线引水指标、提高水资源利用效率、提高第二和第三产业比重、改变各城市人口分布，都能不同程度地提高城市群的水资源承载能力；采用各项调控措施时，水资源承载的经济总规模为35216．1亿元、人均GDP为77356元，超过规划的2020水平年中原城市群经济发展规模。