基于新村流域1956—2014年月降水、蒸发及径流资料，采用多种统计学方法分析了径流及其影响因素的变化特征。结果表明：新村流域径流量减小趋势明显，且在1977年发生了突变，降水量呈一定的减小趋势，而蒸发量减小趋势明显；新村流域由气候变化引起的年径流深减小量为75．51 mm，由下垫面条件变化引起的年径流深减小量为98．40 mm。同时，流域内水文循环规律也发生了变化，径流系数由突变前的0．31减小为突变后的0．11。%Quantitative analysis on runoff changing factors were done by using variety of statistical methods based on analysis on changing characteristics of runoff, precipitation and evaporation by using observed data during 1956-2014. The results show that runoff decreases obviously in Xincun watershed and the mutation happens in 1977;there is a certain decrease trend of precipitation and the decrease trend of evaporation is obviously;75.51 mm and 98.40 mm runoff depth lead to decrease respectively for runoff by climate and underlying surface change. At the same time, the regularity of hydrological cycle also has been changed. Runoff coefficient is 0. 31 before mutation year and decreases to 0.11 after mutation year.
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