三峡水库运用后鄱阳湖区枯水情势及成因分析

摘要

The changes of water resources situation of Poyang Lake during low flow period are closely related to water supply safety, water environment and ecology. On the basis of long-term measured rainfall, runoff and landform data, by using the methods of data analysis and mathematical models of flow and sediment, the low flow situation of Poyang Lake area in recent years and its causes, the future trend of low flow situation after operation of reservoirs in the mainstream and tributaries of upper Yan-gtze River are studied. The results show that under the influence of impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir, rainfall and runoff variation, scouring and sedimentation of rivers and lakes, and increase of water consumption, the normalization of following situa-tions may appear, including fall of water level, early arrival of low flow period and extension of low flow duration. After the oper-ation of Three Gorges Project and the key reservoirs in the upper Yangtze River, the low flow situation of Poyang Lake will be ag-gravated due to less runoff in impoundment period and larger erosion of main channel.%鄱阳湖区枯水期的水资源情势变化与湖区供水安全、水环境及水生态环境保护密切相关。依据长系列实测降雨、径流、地形等资料，采用资料分析、水沙数学模型等手段，对近年来鄱阳湖区枯水情势、成因以及未来上游干支流水库调度运用后的枯水变化趋势进行了研究。结果表明，受三峡水库蓄水、天然降雨径流变化、江湖冲淤以及流域用水量增加等因素的影响，鄱阳湖区枯水位降低、枯水期提前、枯水历时加长的情况将呈常态化趋势。三峡及上游控制性水库运用后，蓄水期径流减少以及干流河道冲刷加大，将进一步加剧鄱阳湖区的枯水情势。