基于云模型的流域防洪工程体系风险评价研究

摘要

Abtsr act: In order to reasonably and effectively evaluate the risk of basin flood control engineering system , a comprehensive risk evaluation model based on cloud model theory is established by considering the fuzziness and randomness in the process of risk evaluation.The presented model can describe the fuzziness of evaluation grades by the membership function in cloud model theory, but also consider the randomness of the membership degree with hyper entropy concept in the theory of cloud model. And in order to make the evaluation results more reliable ,it properly determines the comprehensive assessment grade by the varying combined parameters in variable fuzzy set theory. Finally, the new model is applied to risk evaluation of a watershed flood control engineering system , and the results are compared with matter-element model , variable fuzzy sets model and set pair analysis -variable fuzzy set model.The results illustrate that the cloud model is effective and feasible and can indicate the fuzziness and randomness in the process of evaluation ,thus give out a new thinking for basin flood risk analysis .%为了合理有效地开展流域防洪工程体系综合风险评价，以云模型理论为基础，综合考虑风险评价过程中的模糊性和随机性，建立了流域防洪体系风险评价的云综合评价模型。该模型优点在于利用云模型理论中的隶属函数和超熵概念分别描述了评价等级的模糊性和隶属程度的随机性，并通过可变模糊集理论中的变换组合参数进行综合评价，使得评价结果可信度高。将云综合评价模型应用到某流域防洪工程体系风险综合评价中，并与物元模型、模糊可变模型、集对分析－可变模糊模型进行了对比分析。结果表明，云模型方法有效可行，体现了评估过程中的模糊性和随机性，为流域防洪安全风险评价提供了新思路。