博斯腾湖面积变化遥感监测及其驱动因素分析

摘要

[目的]定量分析博斯腾湖面积变化趋势及其驱动因素,研究博斯腾湖面积历史变化规律,预测其2020与2030年的湖泊面积变化趋势,为博斯腾湖水资源合理开发利用与管理提供科学依据.[方法]以博斯腾湖为研究对象,利用3S技术,解译多年遥感影像数据,计算1978、1990、2000、2015年的博斯腾湖面积;将遥感解译结果结合水文、气象、社会经济统计数据,运用相关分析、主成分分析与多元回归模型定量分析引起博斯腾湖面积变化的驱动因素,并对博斯腾湖2020与2030年的面积变化趋势进行预测.[结果]1978~2015年间博斯腾湖面积减少了约39.75 km2,总体呈现减少的变化趋势,经历变小-变大-再变小的波动性变化过程;人为因素(人口数量、灌溉面积、引水量、灌溉量)与气候因素(径流量、气温、降水量)是影响博斯腾湖面积变化的两个关键因素,在博斯腾湖面积变化过程中的贡献率分别为47.793%和37.818%;未来5与15 a博斯腾湖面积在人类活动与气候变化的共同影响下将呈现继续减少的变化趋势,预计在2020与2030年分别为939.23和935.34 km2.[结论]在过去30多年中,博斯腾湖面积经历了缩小-扩大-再缩小的波动性变化过程;人类活动与气候变化因素是引起变化的驱动因素,其中人类活动起主导作用;未来5与15 a博斯腾湖面积仍将持续呈现逐渐变小的趋势.%[Objective] In this paper, Bosten Lake as the research object, comprehensive analysis of the water area variation of Bosten Lake and its driving factors will be conducted, and also the variation trend of Bosten Lake in 2020 and 2030 will be predicted, thus providing scientific foundation for understanding the causes of water-surface area variations and for offering scientific advise for the rational development of water resources of Bosten Lake.[Method]Based on four period remote sensing data and 30 years of climate and socio-economic statistical data, by applying 3S technology, principal component analysis and regression analysis to calculate the 1978, 1990, 2000, 2015 years four period waters area of Bosten Lake, and find out the driving force of water area change.[Result](1) Bosten Lake lost about 39.75 km2 water area from 1978 to 2015 and the whole process of change was not a simple reduction but the process of changing from small to large and small size, characterized by volatility;(2) Principal component analysis result indicated that human factors (population, irrigation area, water amount, irrigation amount) and climatic factors (runoff, temperature, precipitation) were the two major factors affecting the change of Bosten Lake water area.Their contribution rates were 47.793% and 37.818%, respectively in the whole process, which demonstrated that the changes of water area were largely affected by human activity rather than climate change.(3) By establishing a multivariate regression model, we predicted changes of Bosten Lake water area from the year 2020 to 2030.Our regression model suggested that Bosten Lake water area will maintain a continuous reduction trend in the future few year, and water area in 2020 and 2030 years will be 939.226 and 935.34 km2.[Conclusion]The driving force of lake resource changes is not only climate fluctuations, but also human activities.In the short term, human activities are the mainly affecting factors of the Bosten Lake water resource change.And the human activities interference is growing.These findings provide scientific foundation for understanding the causes of water-surface area variations and for effectively maintaining the stability of the Bosten Lake area through adjustments in land use structure.