房地产价格、CPI与居民消费需求增长--基于VEC模型的实证分析

摘要

本文利用VEC模型，分析了房地产价格、CPI与居民消费需求增长的长期均衡关系及格兰杰因果关系，并利用脉冲响应函数，深入分析了房地产价格对居民消费需求及CPI的影响机理。得出如下结论：房地产价格上涨的财富效应大于替代效应、房地产价格与物价水平存在相互促进的关系、房价上升对物价水平产生的影响先负后正、物价上涨不利于扩大居民消费需求、居民消费需求的增长对物价水平的上升无明显影响等结论。最后，根据分析结果，简要提出了相关政策建议。%The paper analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship among the real estate price, CPI and the growth of consumer demand and Granger causality by using VEC model, deeply studies the influential mechanism of the real estate prices on the con-sumer demand and CPI by means of impulse response function. The conclusions are that the wealth effect of the real estate prices is bigger than the substitution effect, the real estate price and CPI promote each other, the influences of the rise of the real estate price on CPI are negative first and then become positive., the rise of CPI is not conducive to the expansion of consumer demand, and con-sumer demand growth has no significant effect on the rise of CPI . Finally, according to the analysis results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions.