页岩气水平井产量主控因素分析及产能预测

摘要

Based on the development cases of 202 and 204 platforms in W national shale gas industry demonstration zone,the main influence factors on shale gas horizontal well production are analyzed involving reservoir parameters such as total organic carbon (VTOC),mineral component content,porosity,saturation,gas content,rocks brittleness index and well trajectory,fracturing effect,etc.,by combining with testing and production data.The effects of these factors to horizontal well production are evaluated.The characterization parameters used to evaluate horizontal well production are defined.The models of shale gas in a horizontal well for productivity prediction are built for W zone including a mathematical statistics model and a neural network model.%通过W地区国家级页岩气产业示范区2个平台的水平井开发实例,从页岩气储层测井评价入手,结合W地区页岩气水平井的测试、生产数据,研究分析页岩储层总有机碳含量、矿物组份、孔隙度、饱和度、含气量、脆性指数等储层参数,以及井眼轨迹、压裂效果等因素与水平井产量的关系,评估这些因素对水平井产量的影响程度.综合考虑上述参数,定义用于评价页岩气水平井产能的表征参数,建立W地区页岩气水平井产能预测的数理统计和神经网络模型.2个模型在W地区页岩气水平井产能预测应用结果表明,数理统计模型预测产能平均相对误差为18.10％,神经网络模型预测产能平均相对误差为0.54％.