基于静态程度的荆南三口地区水资源短缺变化分析

摘要

为了探究相对丰水地区水资源短缺程度,构建水资源短缺程度评价指标体系,采用突变级数法对长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺静态程度进行评价,以静态程度为基础,信息集结视角和变化速度激励为手段,提出融合变化速度状态测度与变化速度趋势测度的水资源短缺程度动态综合评价模型.结果表明,该地区2003年～2015年水资源短缺静态程度不严重,均为基本不缺水类型,但区域内存在差异;耦合水资源短缺程度变化速度状态测度与变化速度趋势测度的动态综合评价模型能够表征区域出现水资源短缺风险的概率及揭示短缺程度变化的速度原因.%In order to explore the degree of water resources shortage in relatively abundant water area,the evaluation index system of water resources shortage is established,and the static degree of water resources shortage in Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River is evaluated by using catastrophe progression method.Based on static evaluation results and taking the information aggregation angle of view and the change of speed as means,a model of dynamic comprehensive evaluation of water resources shortage is proposed,which couples the state and trend of changing speed together.The results show that:(a) the static degree of water resources shortage is not serious,but there are some differences in the area;and (b) the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model can characterize the probability of regional water shortage risk and the reason of shortage degree change.