基于中心复合设计的RSM边坡可靠度研究

摘要

为提高边坡可靠度的计算精度与效率,基于响应面法(RSM)的思想,考虑影响边坡稳定的主要强度参数粘聚力c、内摩擦角ψ的不确定性,同时计入边坡稳定计算模型不确定性,分别采用中心复合设计(CCD)和拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)获取2种不同试验设计的样本数据,借助岩土工程极限平衡Slide程序获取Bishop、Spencer、Morgenstern-Price等3种稳定模型的样本响应值,编写Matlab程序求解边坡可靠度指标和验算点.以Monte Carlo(MC)法计算结果作为可靠性分析的基准解,并与基本二层土模型和托巴110 kV施工变电站边坡计算结果进行对比分析.结果表明,CCD求解的可靠度指标更接近MC基准解,满足精度的同时,提高了求解效率.%In order to improve slope reliability calculation accuracy and efficiency,based on the theory of Response Surface Method,and considering parameter uncertainties of cohesion c and angle of internal friction ψ and the uncertainty of calculation model,the sample points in two different design experiments are firstly got by using Center Composite Design and Latin Hypercube Sampling,then the response values of three models of Bishop,Spencer and Morgenstern-Price are obtained by using Slide program,and finally the slope reliability index and design point are solved in Matlab program.Taking Monte Carlo solution as a benchmark reference,the result of basic two-layer slope model and the calculation results of Tuoba 110kV substation slope are compared with the benchmark.The results show that the reliability index of Center Composite Design is closer to the benchmark reference of Monte Carlo solution,the accuracy of calculation meets requirement and the solution efficiency is improved.