开都河流域径流变化特征与突变分析

摘要

主要采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall单调趋势检验法及Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,分析开都河流域1961~2010年径流变化趋势与突变情况. 基于R/S分析的Hurst指数计算方法,预测径流未来的变化趋势. 研究表明,在过去50年,开都河流域径流量呈显著增加趋势,并在1996年发生了由少到多的突变,多年平均径流量与突变前相比增加了9.20 ×10 8 m3.并在未来一段时间内也呈增加趋势,为流域最严格水资源管理提供科学决策依据.%Thevariation characteristics of runoffin the Kaidu River Basin were analyzed during 1961~2010 by usinglinear regression , Mann-Kendall monotonic trend test and the Mann -Kendall muta-tion testing and method R/S analysis of the Hurst exponent calculation .In the past 50 years, the run-off in theKaidu River Basin showed a significant increasing trend , and occurred abrupt change from low to high in 1996.This study may provide some reference to sustainableto the Kaidu River Basin water resources management and development environment .