大型地震应急物资需求预测方法研究

摘要

大型地震给社会造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失,灾后应急物资的及时供应对挽救生命至关重要,而应急物资需求预测是供应的前提.本文利用BP神经网络算法对灾后人员伤亡人数进行预测,然后结合库存管理知识估算灾区应急物资的需求量,以期为灾后应急物资的筹措和配送决策提供参考.最后,运用该方法对"5.12汶川地震"中的极重灾区北川县的应急物资需求进行了估算.%Large-scale earthquakes have caused heavy casualties and severe property damage. The timely supply of emergency materials is very important to save lives in disaster areas. But the demand forecast of emergency materials is needed. This paper adopts BP neural network algorithm for estimating the casualties in earthquakes, and utilizes the knowledge about inventory management to estimate the demand of emergency materials, in order to make reference for decision making on the raise and distribution of emergency materials after earthquakes. At last, the method is used to forecast the demand of Beichuan County which was one of the hardest areas in "5.12 Wenchuan earthquake".