基于网络层次分析法与证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估研究

摘要

On account of the difficulties in data acquisition and the inconsistent data sources related to risk assessment of radio block center, a new risk assessment model based on ANP and ET is put forw ard. In which, ANP is used to acquire the weight of risk factors; the fuzzy mathematic theory is applied to obtain the basic probability assignment combined with expert comments; and the discounting evidence theory is adopted to fuse the expert evidences. Finally, the weighted average function is used to define the risk levels of the assessment targets according to the maximum membership principle. Taking the radio block center as an example, this model is used to assess the risk level of RBC.%针对无线闭塞中心风险评估中数据源的难获得性和不一致性, 提出基于网络层次分析法和证据理论建立风险评估模型.其中:运用网络层次分析法确定风险因素的权重;运用模糊数学理论, 结合专家打分法, 确定专家评语基本概率函数;运用折扣证据理论, 对专家提供的证据进行融合;最后, 运用加权平均函数, 依据最大隶属度原则, 实现对待估对象的风险等级的评估.以无线闭塞中心为例, 运用该模型对无线闭塞中心所处的风险等级进行了评估.