基于层次分析法的境外轨道交通公私合作模式风险分析方法

摘要

In line with the characteristics of PPP investment and financing model adopted in overseas railway transport projects, the risk checklist is used for risk identification and the confirm of the main risk factors, a risk evaluation model based on PPP investment and financing model of overseas railway transport via Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is established; then a judgment matrix with different layers is constructed to calculate and exam the key figures in the matrix, in order to realize the general ranking of risk factors and make a risk analysis closer to the actual status. This research could contribute to the decision-making in tenders for Chinese enterprises on overseas urban rail transit projects.%针对境外轨道交通PPP(公私合作)投融资模式项目的特点,采用风险核对表进行风险识别,确定主要风险因素.应用层次分析法建立了境外轨道交通PPP融资模式的风险评价模型,构造各层次的判断矩阵,并分别计算相关特征量进行判断矩阵的一致性检验,实现了各风险因素的总排序.该方法使得风险的分析更反映项目实际,可为中国企业参与境外城市轨道交通项目的投标决策提供帮助.