对综合交通规划中融入实施风险评估的思考

摘要

新时期对综合交通规划的实施性或可操作性的要求越来越高，尤其是特大城市综合交通规划涵盖的内容越来越广，已远远超出了传统交通规划的范畴。以广州市综合交通规划为例，在全面分析方案实施过程中面临的不确定性的基础上，将综合交通规划编制内容划分为设施建设、运营管理和城市规划等3个方面，并且，利用综合交通规划模型准确预测和把握各类不可控因素对交通规划方案实施的影响程度。广州的实践表明，方案编制阶段融入风险评估有利于提高交通规划的可实施性和政府科学合理分配资源，增强方案实施效果。%In-the-new-ear,the-implementation-or-operational-requirements-are-increasingly-high,espe-cially-the-content-of-comprehensive-transportation-planning-in-mega-city-covered-more-widely,far-be-yond-the-traditional-scope-of-transportation-planning.Take-Guangzhou-city-comprehensive-transporta-tion-planning-for-example,the-content-is-divided-into-facilities-construction,operations-management-and-urban-planning-based-on-the-comprehensive-uncertainty-analysis.The-integrated-transport-plan-ning-models-are-used-to-accurately-predict-and-grasp-the-extent-of-the-impact-of-various-types-of-non-controllable-factors-on-transportation-planning-program-implementation.Guangzhou's-practice-shows-that-the-risk-assessment-integrated-into-preparation-phase-of-the-program-will-ensure-the-implementa-tion-of-program-and-government's-scientific-and-rational-allocation-of-resources,and-also-enhance-pro-gram's-effectiveness.