基于光伏预测的微电网能源随机优化调度

摘要

Intermittent and stochastic loads of renewable energy generate great challenges to micro-grid energy management systems( EMS ). Issue of energy optimal scheduling in research of micro-grid under stochastic environment has important meaning. An energy stochastic optimization scheduling model based on expectation model is set up by considering uncertainties associated with photovoltaic forecasting. A scenarios of photovoltaic forecasting error is generated Monte Carlo model approach is employed to characterize the random nature of uncertainty according to probability density function. Then,particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to solve stochastic optimization scheduling model. Through comparing with scheduling scheme gemerated by deterministic model,the effectiveness of proposed stochastic optimization scheduling model is verified.%可再生能源的间歇性和负荷的随机性对微电网能源管理系统（ EMS）产生了巨大的挑战。在随机环境下的能源优化调度问题在微电网的研究中具有重要意义。以微电网中光伏发电系统的功率预测为基础，将光伏预测误差当做随机变量，建立了一种基于期望模型的能源随机优化调度模型。用Monte Carlo模拟方法生成了光伏发电预测误差的情景集，应用粒子群优化算法来解决随机优化调度模型。通过与确定性模型产生的调度方案相对比，证明了随机优化调度模型更加有效。