新型城镇化和生态效率是当前关注热点.文章采用长江中游城市群28个地级市2000—2013年的面板数据,研究城镇化、生态效率与旅游业发展之间的关系.研究表明:长江中游城市群城镇化、生态效率与旅游业发展存在长期的协整关系.城镇化是旅游业发展的单向格兰杰原因,且城镇化水平对旅游业发展具有显著的正的影响;而生态效率与旅游业发展互为格兰杰因果关系,但是这种相互促进关系比较微弱,且随着时间的增长旅游业发展对于生态效率具有负的影响;最后从方差分解来看,城镇化发展对旅游业发展的贡献始终高于生态效率,且从长期来看这种关系趋于稳定.因此,在城市群新型城镇化进程中,要想推进旅游业健康快速发展,既要注重城镇化建设,更要重视生态文明和绿色发展.%Urban clusters have become a driving force promoting a new-type of urbanization in China. How to best promote the coordinated development of urban clusters and their respective natural environments remains an important issue today. With its unique industrial advantages, the tourism industry has become a forerunner in the creation of urban clusters.This paper,taking urban clusters in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as the research objects,uses panel data of 28 prefecture-level cluster cities from 2000 to 2013 to study the relationship between urbanization, eco-efficiency and tourism development. First,this paper adopts the eco-efficiency index to replace the simple economic growth index,and uses the super-efficient DEA model to measure the eco-efficiency of each city in an urban cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. On this basis, the Panel-VAR model was established, and the dynamic relationship between the above three was studied by use of the Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition. The study shows that a long-term co-integration relationship exists between urbanization, eco-efficiency and the development of tourism in the urban clusters. Urbanization is the one-way Granger reason for tourism development, and the level of urbanization has a significantly positive impact on it. Eco-efficiency and tourism development are a reciprocal Granger causality,but this mutual relationship is relatively weak,and as time passes,tourism development has a negative impact on eco-efficiency. In terms of variance decomposition, the contribution of urbanization to tourism development has always been higher than that of eco-efficiency, and this relationship tends to be stable in the long run. The results show that on the one hand tourism development in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River mainly depends on the rapid development of urbanization and considers less the negative effect on the natural environment;but this negative cumulative effect will slowly display itself as time passes. On the other hand,the research results reflect a development of eco-tourism in China still in the initial stages,and more time is needed to fundamentally improve this situation.Therefore,in order to promote the healthy and rapid growth of tourism during the ongoing emergence of the urban clusters, it is necessary to pay attention to the development of urbanization as well as green development.What's more,attention must also be paid to the possible negative impact brought by the long-term development of the tourism industry on the natural environment to ensure an in-depth eco-tourism development model.
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