基于指数平滑法的黑龙江粮食货运量需求预测

摘要

文章根据黑龙江省2004~2012年统计年鉴的数据，运用指数平滑法分别对铁路运输和公路运输的粮食货运量进行短期需求预测。通过预测发现，黑龙江在2014年和2015年的粮食货运总量及各类交通运输方式的粮食货运量分别处于上升趋势，黑龙江粮食物流需求将逐渐扩大。针对研究结果，文章总结了黑龙江粮食物流当前存在的诸多问题，并为提高该省粮食物流管理水平提出了相应的政策建议，在一定程度上为黑龙江近期粮食物流基础设施建设提供了决策依据。%According to the data of the year 2004~2014 Statistical Yearbook in Heilongjiang, this article used exponential smoothing method to make short-term demand forecasts of grain freight on rail and road transport. By predicting, it is found that the total grain freight and all transportations of food freight are on a rise in 2014 and 2015. Grain logistics demand will gradually expand in this province. Based on the results, the thesis summarized many problems in Heilongjiang grain logistics. Besides, it put forward corresponding policy recommendations for improving grain logistics management level. To some extent, this provided a basis for deci-sion on Heilongjiang grain logistic infrastructure.