农业碳排放时序测算及其影响因素分析--以湖北省公安县为例

摘要

“Agricultural carbon emissions” was proposed in the early 20th century, recent years, with the development of agriculture, carbon emissions resulting from agricultural activities has increased, the society pay close attention to agricultural carbon emissions. Takes Gong'an County, Jianghan Plain, Jingzhou city ,Hubei province as an example on scale of county. Based on agricultural inputs and six main major carbon source in the production process, calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of Gong'an County, decompose the impacts factors of carbon emission by Kaya identity deformation formula. The results showed that: Recent years total agricultural emissions of Gong'an County has increased, the average growth rate of agriculture carbon emission is 2.08% and the average rate of agriculture carbon intensity is 1.59%. Economic factors are the main factors that influence carbon emissions, efficiency factors, structural factors and labor factors were shown to inhibit the growth of carbon emissions.%“农业碳排放”最早在20世纪早期就已提出，近年随着农业的发展，农业生产活动导致的碳排放量有增无减，农业碳排放问题受到社会各界高度关注。从县域视角出发，以湖北省江汉平原荆州市公安县为例，基于农业投入与生产过程中的6个主要方面的碳源，测算了近年公安县农业碳排放量，运用Kaya恒等式变形公式对农业碳排放影响因素进行分解分析。结果表明：公安县近年农业碳排放总量呈现增长趋势，农业碳排放总量及农业碳排放强度年均增长率分别为2.08%，1.59%。经济因素是影响碳排放的主要因素，效率因素,结构因素和劳动力因素均表现为抑制碳排放的增长。