信息化水平对生产率的直接效应和间接效应——劳动力技能结构的中介作用

摘要

构建了关于信息化水平、劳动力技能结构以及生产率的理论框架,探讨了信息化水平对生产率的直接和间接影响,以及劳动力技能结构在其中的中介作用,并利用中国省际面板数据对理论框架进行验证.结果表明:信息化水平对生产率同时具有直接影响和间接影响;信息化水平对生产率的直接影响呈现出动态的阶段性特征,两者之间存在U形关系,信息技术对生产率的促进作用只有在信息化水平达到一定程度后才能显现;信息化水平对生产率的间接影响通过劳动力技能结构的中介作用来实现:信息化水平的提升对低技能劳动者有明显的挤出效应,并带来了中、高技能劳动力需求上升,导致劳动力技能结构升级,从而促进劳动生产率以及资本生产率的提高;劳动力技能结构在信息化水平与全要素生产率之间的中介作用不显著.要使信息化更好地发挥作用,必须匹配较高水平的人力资本,劳动者需要进行持续学习与提升,以适应不断变化的社会需求.%This paper constructs a theoretical framework of informatization,labor''s skill structure and productivity,and studies the direct and indirect effects of informatization on productivity,and the mediation role of labor''s skill structure.It empirically studies to test the theoretical framework by using the provincial panel data of China.The result shows as follows:there is a U shape relationship between informatization and productivity,which means that informatization would drive productivity only when the informatization reaches at a relative high level;indirect effect is realized by the mediation role of labor''s skill structure;informatization squeezes out low-skilled labors,and increases the proportion of skilled labors;as a results,labor productivity and capital productivity become higher.The implications for firms and policymakers are that in the long run informatization would drive productivity and to make it more effective,higher level of human capital is necessary.Workers need to constantly upgrade their skills,so as to meet the need of labor market better.