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啄序排位变迁、融资结构与利率

     

摘要

将融资结构变量引入货币供需函数,探析了中国地方政府融资平台影响货币需求的机制及利率变动的边界条件.分阶段的实证分析结果显示:融资结构与利率的关系在两阶段完全不同,2002—2008年期间融资结构对利率的影响不显著,但2011—2015年期间该影响非常显著;增加了融资结构变量后,2002—2008年期间VAR结构不变;但2011—2015年期间VAR的时间趋势被消除,且利率与货币存量、通货膨胀和GDP等宏观经济变量的相关关系发生了重大变化.%This paper introduces the variable of financing structure into the supply and demand function of money,and explores the influence mechanism of China's local government financing platform on monetary demand and the boundary condition of interest rate change.The results show as follows:the relationships between financing structure and interest rate in two stages are completely different,and the effect of financial structure on interest rate in the period of 2002-2008 is not significant,while that is very significant in the period of 2011-2015;after adding the variable of financing structure into VAR model,it hasn't influence in the period of 2002-2008,while time trend is eliminated in the period of 2011-2015,and the relationships among interest rate and money stock,inflation and GDP change significantly in the period of 2011-2015.

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