肥西县农村苗木技术推广的影响因素研究--应用Logistic模型的实证分析

摘要

This paper presents an empirical evidence on the impact of social environmental factors on the adoption of seedling practices in Feixi County,Anhui Province. The study uses primary data,which was collected during the summer of 2013,covering three major villages of Feixi County. Several seedling technologies have been promoted among farmers in the zone,such as seedling selection,intercropping,seedling specification,etc. It is proved that education,distance to county location,experience of talking about seedling technology with friends and production planning affect the adoption of seedling technology significantly in a logistic model. These findings,along with others,indicate that factors affecting the promotion of new technology in rural areas constitute a system of social action.%本文在肥西县苗木技术整体推广环境的综合分析基础上，以实证分析方式研究了学者冯鹏志提出的“技术创新社会行动系统”中社会环境因素对农户采纳苗木技术的影响。文章采用Logistic模型回归分析方法，证明了农户特征因素“受教育程度”、社会物质资源因素“农户与县城的距离”、社会制度模式因素“与朋友、熟人交流技术”和社会文化背景因素“生产时间规划”共同构成最优拟合回归方程，对农户采纳苗木技术具有极显著且重要的影响；“年龄”、“土地相对适宜性”、“参加培训次数”、“技术难易认知”、“地位认知”等9个因素，对农户采纳苗木技术具有显著影响，但不重要；“男女能力观念”因素对技术采纳的影响既不显著，也不重要。