国际能源价格波动对中国 PPI 的结构性冲击

摘要

Based on the sample data from 2007 to 2015 ,this paper constructs a panel structure VAR model with interactive effects ,analyzes the structural conduction characteristics of international energy price fluctuations on China's PPI ,and examines the asymmetric effects .The results show that the impact of international energy price shock on China's PPI is decreasing along the energy industry chain .The impact of international energy price shocks on PPI fluctuations of the upstream energy extraction and processing industries contribute to more than 90% , and the contribution of international energy price shocks to PPI fluctuations of the middle chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing is about 78% , while chemical fiber manufacturing belongs to the end of the energy industry chain , the impact of international energy price shock on its PPI is only about 50% .The PPI of final consumable industry have basically not affected .The positive and negative impact of international energy prices on PPI index are weak asymmetric in most industries .In recent years ,over‐investment in energy ,steel and other industries have also put downward pressure on PPI ,we must adhere to accelerate the industrial restructuring and promote industrial upgrading .%基于2007—2015年的样本数据，构建含交互效应的面板结构 VAR模型，定量分析国际能源价格波动对中国PPI造成的结构性冲击，并考察冲击的非对称性。分析结果表明，国际能源价格冲击对中国PPI的影响沿能源产业链递减明显，国际能源价格冲击对上游能源开采和加工业PPI波动的贡献度达90％以上，对中游化工行业如化学原料和化学制品制造业PPI波动的贡献度为78％左右，而化学纤维制造业属于能源产业链的末端，国际能源价格冲击的贡献度仅为50％左右，消费品行业基本不受影响；国际能源价格正、负向冲击对大部分行业 PPI的影响有较弱的非对称性。近年来对能源、钢铁等行业的过度投资也对 PPI下行产生了很大压力，必须坚持加快产业结构调整推动产业结构转型升级。