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退休消费之谜: 方法、 证据与中国解释

         

摘要

Using the approach of regression discontinuity , this paper analyzes the causal effect of the retirement on consumption in China. It is found that the retirement of male and female reduce the total family consumption of 17.5% and 10.5%respectively. The impact of male's retirement on the family's consumption of foods and durable goods is not significant , but prominent on the consumption of clothing, housing, education, health care, transportation and communication. The female's retirement boast of no effects on the consumption of clothing , durable goods , housing , medical care and health care is not significant , but has significant impacts on the consumption of food , education , transportation and communication. Further discussions are made about the retirement policy, the allocation of home time, the consumptions for working, the gender role difference and retirement order differences by gender in China.%利用断点回归方法, 本文实证分析了退休行为如何影响我国的家庭消费. 研究发现, 我国家庭中男性和女性成员的退休, 分别减少了家庭总消费的17.5%和10.5%; 就各分类消费支出而言, 男性成员退休对家庭的食品和耐用品消费的影响是不显著的, 但对衣着、 居住、 教育、 医疗保健、 交通与通讯等消费支出的影响是显著的, 女性成员退休对衣着、 耐用品、 居住、 医疗保健等消费支出的影响是不显著的, 但对食品、 教育、 交通与通讯等消费支出的影响是显著的. 结合中国实际, 本文从退休制度设计、 家庭时间配置、 与工作相关的消费性支出、 家庭分工的性别差异、 退休次序的性别差异等角度进行了相应解释.

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