养老金双轨制改革的“中人”预测仿真研究--基于浙江省的经验分析

摘要

Getting rid of pension dual-track system and deepening the reform of old-age insurance system of institutions,is to build the national unitied three pillar pension system for institutions. The research on key for pension reform is whether to set up "the middleman" in Zhejiang province in the next 35 years,"establishment of the middleman" and"does not set up the middleman" case of pension benefits,income and expenditure payment of financial investment for the forecast simulation,finally draws the conclusion:The fiscal pressure for the reform of pension dual-track system is not particularly large,and pension system reform has feasibility and sustainability in Zhejiang. From the comparison of three kinds of pension reform scheme financial burden,regardless of the financial cumulative burden or fiscal expenditure in the years," establishment of the middleman without reform compensation" is more feasible and sustainable.%破除养老金双轨制，深化改革机关事业单位养老保险制度，就是要建立全国统一的机关事业单位三支柱养老保险体系。本研究针对养老金改革方案的关键即是否设立中人，对浙江省未来35年“设立中人”和“不设立中人”情况下的养老金待遇支出、缴费收入以及财政投入进行了预测仿真，最后得出结论：浙江省养老金双轨制改革的财政压力并不算特别大，养老金双轨制改革在浙江具有可行性和可持续性。从三种并轨方案的财政负担比较来看，无论财政累计负担还是当年财政支出，“设立中人，不给予改革性补偿”的可行性和可持续性更高。