基于季节时间序列模型的网络流量实证分析

摘要

针对CERNET上的一段网络流量数据，基于季节时间序列相关理论，对其进行实证分析，对数据进行预处理、模型的适应性检验、平稳性检验、白噪声检验及模型预测．通过经验和实际的理论操作，充分显示了季节时间序列在处理网络流量这种带有周期性性质数据中的优势．%On the base of the seasonal time series theory, a section traffic data of the CERNET network is analyzed through data preprocessing, the stationary test, the white noise test, the adaptability and themodel predictions. The experience and operation of theory shows the advantage of the seasonal time series in dealing with network traffiC.