为估算中国国际海运船队温室气体的排放状况，对联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提出的“自下而上”以及“自上而下”排放量估测方法进行分析，表明海运温室气体排放量取决于海运业燃油消耗量以及燃油的排放因子，燃油消耗量与海运船舶的活动频率以及船舶能效有关。提出基于船舶装机总量以及基于船舶活动强度的两种估算方法。结果表明，1990~2007年间，中国国际海运船队二氧化碳排放量平均年递增7.6%，而同期全球国际海运温室气体排放平均年递增3.7%。中国应积极研究相关措施以控制中国国际海运船队二氧化碳排放量的不断增长。%In order to understand the situation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from China international shipping fleet, both estimation methods of TOP-DOWN and BOTTOM-UP, which were recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are discussed. Emission from shipping is mainly determined by consumption factor of fuel and carbon factor of fuel, while fuel consumption is determined by the intensity of shipping activities and ship’s energy efficiency. Both methods, i.e. the way based on ship’s loading engine powers and the way based on the intensity of ship activities, are suggested and applied. It is shown that during the period of 1990-2007, GHG from China international shipping is increased by 7.6 percent annually, while the emission from global international shipping is only 3.7 percent. China should aware and take active measures to control increasing emissions from her international shipping.
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