基于随机模糊参数的导弹武器系统可用度分析

摘要

Aiming at the availability assessment of missile weapon system in complicated battlefield conditions,which the life function or the time of maintaining incomplete obedience exponential distribution and is unsuitable for Markov model.Assuming that the system unit's life has exponential distribution,the repair time and the delay time both have arbitrary distributions,and the repair facility's life has exponential distribution and its repair time has arbitrary distribution.The availability model of missile weapon system considering repair facility breakdown,delay time and series repairable is established by using Markov renewal process theory and the tool of the Laplace transform.Thinking about the randomness and the interval fuzziness of distribution parameter,a random fuzzy technique is introduced into the availability analysis,and triangular fuzzy number is used to quantize fuzzy information,then a demonstration application is conducted.The method can take into account various kinds factors affecting availability as well as the fuzziness synthetically,some examples are used to demonstrate the feasibility and reasonability of the method for availability analysis to non-Markov system.%针对复杂战场条件的导弹武器系统可用度评估,各时间参数分布不完全服从指数分布,且不能用马尔可夫过程来分析的缺点,假定部件的寿命服从指数分布,修理时间和保障延误时间均服从任意分布,并且修理设备服务期服从指数分布,其更换时间服从任意分布的情况下,利用马尔可夫更新过程理论和拉普拉斯变换工具,建立考虑技术阵地设备部分战损情况下和具有保障延误的串联可修导弹武器系统可用度模型.同时考虑分布参数的不确定性和区间模糊性,将随机模糊理论引入可用度分析领域,采用三角模糊数量化模糊信息,并给出算例进行验证.算例结果与前期仿真结果吻合,验证了模型的可行性和有效性.该方法能综合考虑各种可用度的影响因素及其模糊性,为非马尔可夫型系统的可用度分析提供了有效的方法.