基于更新过程的导弹武器系统可用度分析

摘要

针对在导弹武器系统可用度评估中,各时间参数分布不完全服从指数分布,且不能用马尔科夫过程来分析的缺点,利用更新过程,建立考虑保障延误的串联可修导弹武器系统的可用度模型,并进行实例应用.结果表明:算例结果与前期仿真结果吻合,验证了模型的可行性,可为非马尔科夫型系统的可用度分析提供有效方法.%Aiming at the availability assessment of missile weapon system which the life function or the time of maintaining incomplete obedience exponential distribution and is unsuitable for Markov model. The availability model of missile weapon system considering delay time, maintenance time and series repairable is established by using renewal process, and a demonstration application is conducted. The calculating example result is approach to the simulation result. It examined the model possibility and valid methods for availability analysis to non-Markov system.