上海市嘉定区流感控制图法预警技术研究

摘要

目的：为流感监测系统提供预警方法和预警界值，提高流感疫情监测预警能力。方法：利用2004-2009年嘉定区流感监测数据建立预警数据库，采用控制图法建立预警模型，通过计算、比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和绘制ROC曲线，选出合适的预警界值。结果：综合平衡灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、预测功效等指标后，将P55作为嘉定区流感预警界值。结论：控制图法可以作为嘉定区流感早期预警方法。%Objective:To select the premium alert threshold for influenza by using the control chart technique and to upgrade the early detection capability of influenza. Method:Alert data was based on the report of influenza information from 2004 to 2009. Control chart was used to detect outbreak or epidemic after calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value and ROC, and the premium alert threshold for Jiading district was chosen. Result:After the comprehensive consideration of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and ROC, P55 was chosen as the premium alert threshold for influenza in Jiading district. Conclusion: Control chart will be a good early detection technique for influenza surveillance.