目的 采用控制图法预警技术确定上海市松江区手足口病最佳预警界值,提高手足口病疫情监测的预警能力.方法 利用2005~2008年松江区手足口病报告数据建立预警数据库,采用控制图法建立预警模型,通过计算比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值及绘制ROC曲线,优选出最佳预警界值.结果 综合平衡预警的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值等指标后,将P90作为松江区手足口的预警界值.结论 根据传染病发病特点结合当地疫情信息优选出适合于当地的传染病预警界值,提高传染病疫情监测的预警能力.%Objective To select the premium alert threshold for hand foot mouth disease by using the control graph alert technique and to upgrade the early dection capability of hand foot mouth disease. Methods Alert data was based on the report of hand foot mouth disease from 2005 to 2008. Control graph was used to detect outbreak or epidemic, after calculating sensitivity, specifility ,positive predictive value and negative predictive value and ROC,the premium alert threshoud for hand foot mouth disease was chosed. Results After the comprehensive consideration of sensitivity,specifility,positive predictive value and negative predictive value and ROC, P90 was chosed as the premium alert threshold for hand foot mouth disease. Conclusion Premium alert threshold selection should consider the local disease report and the characteristics of infectious diseases to upgrade the early detection capability.
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