基于价格预测能力的基金羊群效应模型与算例分析

摘要

本文总结了现有羊群效应实证模型的不足，基于基金价格预测能力，构建了可以更加精确地判断每只基金的投资决策作为一种信号是否会对其他基金投资决策带来影响的实证模型。分析结果显示，大多数基金都能够产生明显的羊群效应。本文在模型建立过程中还提出了新的基金评价思路，为更加细致的羊群效应实证研究方法提供借鉴。%This paper summarizes the shortcomings of the empirical models widely used in testing existence and attributes of herding effect and proposed a more precise model that can test whether the investment decision of a certain mutual fund will exert influence on other mutual funds' decision making based on mutual funds ' ability to capture right information. This research ended up finding that almost all mutual funds exhibit this kind of power to some extent in the example analysis. This paper provides reference to more precise empirical studies on herding effects and also a new way of mutual funds evaluation method embedded in the model.