基于消费结构分析的扩大内需对策研究——以上海城镇居民为例

摘要

消费是拉动经济的三驾马车之一,在当前依靠投资和出口拉动经济战略受阻的背景下,扩大内需、刺激消费成为推动我国经济发展的关键因素.作为反映居民消费本质的重要概念,消费结构与扩大内需是密不可分的.本文以上海城镇居民消费结构为研究对象,分析其在1995^-2008年间演变规律;运用ELES模型探究居民消费支出与可支配收入的关系;测算商品需求收入弹性系数并进行比较分析.在此基础上,提出从稳定商品价格、提高居民收入、完善社会保障制度和优化供给结构等方面政策刺激消费,扩大内需.%Consumption is one of the "three carriages"of driving economic growth.Recently, the strategy of promoting economic growth depending on the investment and export has been held back, in this context, expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption become the key factors to promote the development of the economy.As the important concept to reflect the essence of residents' consumption, consumption structure is inseparable from expanding domestic demand.This paper focuses on the Shanghai urban residents' consumption structure, analyzes its development regularity, employs ELES model to explore the relationship between residents' consumption expenditure and disposable income, calculates and compares the coefficient of the commodities' income elasticity of demand.On the basis of study in the consumption structure, we propose some suggestions, such as stabilizing the price, increasing the income, improving the insurance system and optimizing the supply structure, to expand domestic demand.