基于区间层次分析法的城市天然气供应系统风险评价

摘要

用区间数描述城市天然气供应系统的复杂性、模糊性及不确定性，对评价体系各层因素进行群体判断，得出群决策判断区间上三角矩阵；以区间层次分析法确定评价体系各底层因素的权重值，通过权重的分配率计算出各底层因素的最大评分区间，并得到系统的相对风险区间。再以城市天然气输配系统为例，构建了区间指数风险评价模型，通过系统灵敏度分析建立风险决策系统。%Interval mathematics was used to describe the complexity, fuzziness and uncertainty of city natural gas supply system. Judgment interval upper triangular matrix based on group decision was obtained by the group judgment of each system factor whose weight value was determined by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). The maximum grading intervals of each lower layer factor were computed by the appointment ratio of weight, and then the system relative risk intervals can be ensured. An interval index risk assessment model based on city natural gas transmission and distribution system was presented, the risk decision system was developed by sensitivity analysis.