ENA-based evaluation of energy supply security: Comparison between the Chinese crude oil and natural gas supply systems

摘要

Energy has become a scarce global strategic resource, and energy supply security is receiving increasing attention. A common evaluation platform is necessary to systematically understand the supply security levels of different energy sources and help make the national energy strategy. Ecological network analysis (ENA) is thus regarded as a useful common tool to systematically simulate, evaluate, and compare the supply security for different energy sources, when considering the fact that modern energy systems have formed a complex global energy network through extensive energy trading. Based on the established ENA platform, we evaluated and compared China's crude oil and natural gas supply security from 2000 to 2012. To this end, we assessed the overall security level, investigated the relationship among different compartments within the network system, determined the system's structure, and analyzed the system's properties. It was found that the Chinese crude oil supply security level was higher than that of the natural gas supply and that the crude oil supply system was more mature in terms of multiple properties. Suggestions are proposed to improve the Chinese energy supply security based on further scenario analysis, including increasing domestic energy production, controlling energy consumption, diversifying foreign supply sources, and strengthening the strategic reserve. The ENA-based common platform can be used for the systematic evaluation and improvement of energy supply security and further support national energy policymaking for both developed and developing countries, both energy importers and exporters.