以参加伦敦奥运会和里约奥运周期前两届世锦赛决赛选手为对象，对里约奥运周期世界女子竞技体操发展格局及中国女队发展前景进行全面分析，主要结果如下：美国队拥有雄厚的人才储备，将在团体和个人全能比赛中独占鳌头；中国、俄罗斯和罗马尼亚三国实力基本相当，共同组成第二集团，临场发挥得好，才能争得奖牌；中国队在高低杠和平衡木拥有较强的实力，但跳马和自由体操两项较弱；俄罗斯各项配置比较全面，并在高低杠和平衡木具有一定的实力；罗马尼亚在个人全能和自由体操具有一定的竞争力；朝鲜队的跳马处于世界领先地位。随着评分规则的调整，预计成套动作 D 分提升空间较小，选手水平日趋接近，完成动作的质量和现场发挥的稳定性，或成为获得胜利的关键因素。中国女队面临的主要任务是，重点培养全能型选手和领军人物，努力提高跳马和自由体操的训练水平，跟上世界发展潮流。%Taking the finalists of women's gymnastics in the London Olympics and 2014 and 2015 World Championships as study objects,this paper conducted a comprehensive analysis on the development pattern of world women gymnastics during 2016 Rio Olympic Cycle and further analyzed the prospects of Chinese women's team.The results show that the US team has strong talent pool and will come out on top in the team and individual all -around competitions;China,Russia and Romania,which have roughly equal strength,compose of the second group and whether they can get medals depend on their performance on spot;Chinese team is strong in the uneven bars and balance beam,but weak at vault and floor exercise;the configuration in Russia is more comprehensive and Russia has a higher level in uneven bars and balance beam;Romania has a certain competitiveness in individual all -around and floor exercise;Korean team is a world leader in the vault.With the adjustment of scoring rules,it is predicted that it is hard to enhance performance of action D in the sets.Quality and stability of the action completion on spot might become a key factor in victory.The main task of the Chinese women's team is to focus on training versatile players and leaders as well as make efforts to improve the training level of vault and floor exercise.
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