基于Logistic回归模型的镇域农村居民点变化驱动力分析

摘要

农村居民点是农村人地关系的核心,弄清楚引起农村居民点变化的驱动因子的作用强度、贡献程度,是开展农村居民点整理、布局优化、制定相关政策重要依据.借助GIS技术,构建了具有统一数据基础的空间数据库,结合专家知识和研究区的实际情况,选择了5个内部因子、8个外部因子,利用Logistic回归模型,以潼南县崇龛镇为例,从居民点综合变化、增加、减少3个不同的角度开展了居民点变化驱动力分析,结果表明农村居民点变化是内部因子和外部因子共同作用的结果,但内部因子的贡献程度远高于外部因子,说明农村居民点在开展区位择优的过程中,更加关注与自身生产生活息息相关的因子.且引起居民点综合变化、增加、减少的驱动因子并不一致,说明居民点的变化是复杂的,在开展整治规划工作前应该从多角度进行详细分析,才能为政策的制定提供科学的依据.%Rural residential is the core of the human land relationship,it is very important to clear the contribution of the driving factors about variation of Rural residential,because we can use that to carry out the rural residential land consolidation,layout optimization,and formulate relevant policies.With the help of GIS technology,we constructed a unified spatial database based data;by the consideration of actual expert knowledge and research area,the papaer selects 5 internal factors,8 external factors and choosing Chong Kan as the study area to analyze the driving factor of comprehensive change,increasing,and decline of rural residential by Logistic regression model method.The result shows that the change of rural residential area is caused both by the interaction factors and external factors,but the contribution of internal factors is much higher than the external factors,the result indict in the process to carry out the location selection,the rural residents pay more attention to life and its production closely related factors.And that driving factors for comprehensive change,increasing,and decrease of rural residential are different,which show that the change of residential is complex,so before we plan to carry out the work of rectification,we should analyze it from multi angles so as to provide scientific basis for making policy.